Supposition

SYNOPSIS

Holy Cross, Live Oak and Brusly mathematically have the best chances to win team titles at the 2017 LHSAA State Wrestling Tournament.  The table below estimates what each of their returning non-1st-6th-place wrestlers from the 2016 tournament, or their new starters for the 2017 tournament, have to average to put them in range for a state team title.

 * This number has given the editor fits.  One would think that as both Brother Martin and Jesuit have two returning state champions and one returning runner-up, the fact that Jesuit is returning three 5th- place finishers and one 6th-place finisher means they would require less points per new starters than the Crusaders.  The explanation lies in the fact that the editor only rewarded 5th and 6th Division I place winners three experience points apiece, amounting to totals of only 12 (x1) + 14 (x3) + their 89 top-3 returning points, yielding a 20.4 returning points average of Jesuit's seven placers in 2016.  Brother Martin, on the other hand, with their initial (and only) returning points scorers combining for 68 returning points and 21 experience points, yields an average of 89/3=29.67 points per returning wrestler.  The higher average reduces the number of points required by new starters when there are more new starters to take into account.

Jesuit fans may take solace (until the section about Brother Martin below, at least) in that Jesuit's lower top-six placers have a lot more room to improve between 6th or 5th and 1st place, and thus a higher scoring potential than Brother Martin's sole runner-up, who can only gain an additional four points.  Additionally, in the Blue Jays' favor, Brother Martin has to average 18 points by 11 brand new state starters, while the Blue Jays already have proven experience in their three 5th-placers and one 6th-placer, and also have two wrestlers in the group of seven "new starters" who actually have state championship experience.

Jesuit also has their secret weapon of scoring about 20 more points than anyone ever expects them to during the state championships.  Give them those 20 additional points and their seven new state starters need only average 17.7 points apiece.

INTRODUCTION

The information presented in this article is pure tommyrot, of course.  As much as possible the editor tried to use quantifiable data, but "guestimations" were nonetheless needed.  Estimating weight classes was not performed due to the non-season months in which mitosis is not quarantined.  Some wrestlers will no doubt find themselves not alone in competing for a particular starting weight class.  This provides a distinct advantage to the larger programs in each division.

The "cold hard facts" the editor was able to use include the following:

1. The average winning totals for LHSAA team championships over the last 10 years were 287 in Division I, 266 in Division II and 268 in Division III;
2. From 2012 (when grades were posted on state tournament brackets) to 2016, wrestlers who placed 4th-6th in one year, and returned to wrestle the next year, improved their placements by an average of 1.6 in Division I, 1.5 in Division II and 2.0 in Division III. The Division II factor of 1.5 was also used for Division I as the actual 1.6 caused ridiculous math problems;
3. Initial point scores use for places 1-6 were as follows: 24, 20, 15, 13, 11, 9;
4. No points are included for pins, technical falls or major decisions;
5. "Improvement points" fluctuate due to the uneven differences between placement points: Rising 1.5 spots from 6th-place means placing 4.5th.  That place does not exist, of course, but the point differential from 6th-place (9) to 4th-place (13) is four points.  In Division I and II the "Improvement points" in that scenario are two points for rising up to 5th (11 points), but not four points for rising to actual 4th-place (13 points).  Adding three points works perfectly in that case.  As for Division III, the average rise of two spots made for very simple math;
6. From 2012 to 2016 90% of Division I 1st-3rd placers repeated in the 1st-3rd spots if they competed in the following year;
7. From 2012 to 2016 75% of Division II 1st-3rd placers repeated in the 1st-3rd spots if they competed in the following year;
8. From 2012 to 2016 62% of Division III 1st-3rd placers repeated in the 1st-3rd spots if they competed in the following year;
9. Items 6, 7 and 8 were totally ignored during the calculations.  They do indicate greater volatility in Division II and particularly in Division III, and hence larger uncalculated margins of error for those divisions as compared to Division I estimates.

The "warm, mushy suppositions" the editor decided to use are as follows:

1. Seven "improvement points" are awarded to 1st-3rd-place finishers who move up one or two spots, or who repeat as state champions.  One cannot rise higher than 1st-place, so not awarding improvement points would actually penalize the teams with returning state champions.  The editor decided that a state champion, a runner-up or a 3rd-place finisher in the practice room could add seven points to the combined scores of the other wrestlers in the practice room come the state tournament;
2. Wrestlers who competed in the state championships but did not place in the 1st-6th spots are counted as "new starters."  This is not reflection on the value of those wrestlers, it simply eliminated a lot of math.  The state experience could easily be considered lagniappe experience for the next state championship tournament.

NOTE - When addressing potential new wrestlers, the numbers do not necessarily match those used in the mathematical tables used for this article.  Subjectivity is much more rampant.

At 53-years-of-age the editor do not believe the editor should be subject to a "Show your work" requirement when deriving an estimate, but he did it anyway - THE MATH - Do not do this at home....

2017 LHSAA State Wrestling Tournament: Division I Outlook

Replacing almost twice as many starters as they did last season, if Brother Martin's Division I reign is assailable, Jesuit and Holy Cross are the teams that might do it.  The three returning Crusader starters cannot easily score more points than they did in the 2016 state tournament, as two won state championships and the other placed second.  The Blue Jays and Tigers have an advantage, though, in that they have significantly less "holes to fill" than the Crusaders.  The edge in the average amount of points required by new or starters who did not place in the top-six goes to the Tigers.

Only twice in 10 years has a team won that was not in the previous year's top three.  In 2010 Catholic won after placing fourth in 2009.  After finishing fifth in 2012, Brother Martin started their current streak of five consecutive Division I team titles.  Hence, the mathematical drivel in Division I will only apply to Brother Martin, Jesuit and Holy Cross, who finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in 2016.

Givens

1. The average winning points total in Division I for the last 10 years is 287.

Division I Unnecessary Math

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The 2017 state tournament may "come down to the wire" between Brother Martin, Jesuit and Holy Cross.  The above numbers indicate the Tigers might be considered a sleight favorite.  Based on the pool sizes the three programs have from which to pull their new starters, the Crusaders certainly have an edge.  Yet (as alluded to above), as this is the state tournament, the Blue Jays get an extra 20 points just for showing up.  Do not ask why - nobody knows why.  Just give them the 20 points and go about your business.

Brother Martin

In 2015 the Brother Martin Crusaders lost Paul Klein, Blaine Eisensohn, Mason Williams, Seth Johnson, Danny Evans and Yehia Riles from their Division I state championship team.  After a season of testing replacements for those six, they came away with Seth Gambill, Cal Palermo, Kevin Casey, Brad Guidry, Cole Alphonso and, at the very end of the season, Paul-Stephen Schmidt.  The result was yet another Division I state championship, their fifth in a row. Robert Dauterive and his assistant coaches are faced with an even more daunting task in the 2016-17 season.  Eleven of the 14 Crusaders who participated in the state championships will be headed for greener pastures (if anything is greener after five consecutive championships).  Schmidt, Stephen Rumney, Taylor Gambill, Palermo, Casey, Guidry, Pierce Williams, Travis Viener, Cole Alphonso, Jacob Clapp and Mohammad Mohammad are all graduating in 2016.  That leaves three Crusaders with state championship experience. Granted, the three are very good.  Luke Cotton and Steven Shields are returning state champions.  Seth Gambill is a returning state runner-up.  Those three alone netted 80.5 of the Crusaders' 304.5 points (27 points apiece average and 26.4% of the Crusaders' total points).

But the Crusaders still need 11 new starters.

Not to worry.  Or, do worry.  In fact, worry much if you are not a Brother Martin fan.

The Crusaders have a very talented crop which should easily fill all of the weight classes not taken by Cotton, Shields and Gambill.

Already proven and "waiting in the wings" is Daniel Varnado.  The senior lost only two matches at 106 lbs. to competitors from Louisiana last season, won two tournaments, including the Trey Culotta, and placed third at the Spartan Invitational and the Louisiana Classic.  And there are others.  Many others.

Just to list a few:

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Jesuit

The Blue Jays return eight starters from their 2016 Division I runner-up team.  Those eight combined for 138 points (17.3 points per wrestler).  State champions Eli Larriviere and Corey Dublin cannot do much better than they did in 2016, nor can runner-up Brandon Greer.  Those three scored a combined 81 points.  The Jays have four others who, with at least one state championship tournament to their credit, could score significantly more than the 57 combined points they scored last season.  Those returners (and 2016 points scored) are Colby Queyrouze (8), Adam Larriviere (14), Jackson deGruy (13), Nathan Koenig (12) and William Rosevalley (10).  (Note - Queyrouze was not included in the calculations in this article, but the 2016 participation should serve him well.)  It is not beyond the realm of reason to expect those five to more than double their 2016 output.  That means at least another 114 points, which, when added to the 81 points earned by Larriviere, Greer and Dublin, gives the Jays 195 points.  The Blue Jays also get six more wrestlers from which to expect points.  While they may not have the pool of tournament placers Brother Martin has from which to choose, there is plenty of experience remaining on the Jesuit roster, and it appears to be in or around the weight classes Jesuit needs.

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Holy Cross

The Tigers, who placed third for the second straight year, return 11 starters from the 2016 state championships roster.  Those starters accounted for 160.5 points (14.6 average per starter).  That average is a little skewed, however, as three of their starters accounted for only two points total.  Take the eight who scored 158.5 points and the average rises to 20.1 points per wrestler.  Three, of course, cannot score significantly more than they did in 2016, as the Tigers return three state champions in Cole Clement, Jake Rando and Joey Foret.  Those three scored 82 points, basically the same as Jesuit's top three.  The remaining five starters hence accounted for 76.5 points.   If they double their output in 2017, then the Tigers have 153 points, which when added to the other 81 gives them 234 points, with six unknowns (counting the three who accounted for two points) to fill the remaining 2017 state roster.  That is 22.5 more points than the extrapolated Blue Jays points total, giving the Tigers the edge over the Blue Jays, at least.  The Tigers also have a pretty talented group from which to fill those six places.

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2017 LHSAA State Wrestling Tournament: Division II Outlook

Live Oak may be the favorite going into this year's state championships.  The Eagles return two state champions and three others who placed in the 4th-6th spots.  Teurlings Catholic lost their three state champions to graduation, and Rummel lost a state champion, two runners-up and seven other starting seniors.  And while Blake Mateu and Josh Ramirez may repeat as the best wrestlers in their weight classes in any division, they can only score so many points in a tournament.

Only twice in 10 years has a team won Division II that was not in the previous year's top three.  That was in 2009 when Holy Cross rose to first from sixth in 2008, and in 2010 when St. Michael rose to first from fourth in 2010.  Hence, the Division II mathematical drivel below will only apply to Teurlings Catholic, Live Oak and Rummel, who placed 1st, 2nd and 3rd in 2016.

Given

1. The average winning points total in Division II for the last 10 years is 266 points.

Teurlings Catholic

The Rebels are losing 155.5 of their 261.5 points from last year's championship team due to graduation, including their three state champions: Brock Bonin, Trey Hebert and Kynan Sonnier.  They do, however, have runner-up Colten Sonnier returning, as well as three others who placed in the top-six of their weight classes.  Two more scored points in the state championships, but their spots will be counted as a segment of the 10 the Rebels need to replace in the 2016-17 season, and each needs to average 16.4 points for the Rebels to score 266. As should be expected Teurlings Catholic has a large pool from which to choose.  Those with tournament success are listed in the table below.

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Live Oak

Despite losing Brennan Webb, Kyle Roberts and Jarrett Rupert, the Eagles are theoretically entering the 2017 state tournament with the best shot they have ever had to win it since 2014.  They will be led by state champions Ean Hill and Ethan Alphonso, and third-place finisher Mason Castle.  In all, Live Oak returns nine starters from last year's state tournament team.  Five of them placed in the top-six.  Of the nine roster spots remaining, from which each wrestler needs to average only 18.08 points to reach 266 points as a team, four exist who scored points in the 2016 tournament.  The Eagles have talent in those without state tournament experience, and they have seven others on their rosters with varsity wins to their credit.

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Rummel

Rummel, of course, is returning state champions in Blake Mateu and Josh Ramirez, who were the best wrestlers last season in any division at 106 and 182 lbs.  But the Raiders are losing nine seniors to graduation, including state champion Robert Hudgins, state runners-up Brandon Willis and Robert Fairchild, and seven more seniors including John Doyle.  Doyle is a major loss, despite not knowing how he might have affected the 2016 state tournament had he been able to compete on the second day. Other than Mateu and Ramirez, Rummel only returns three starters from their 2016 state tournament squad: sophomore Chris Montalbano and junior Dawson Mire placed in the top-six.  Dylan Hezeau, just as Montalbano and Mire, should score much better in 2017. The Raiders will have to rely on, and gain a lot of experience for, a lot of starting rookies.  Those with wins in 2015-16 are listed below.  The 2017-18 season looks to be one in which to really keep an eye on Rummel if they remain in Division II.

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2017 LHSAA State Wrestling Tournament: Division III Outlook

Brusly did not give up its reign over Division III easily last year, and the Panthers only had 10 wrestlers entered into the state tournament.  With a full team, Jimmy Bible's team should give the defending champions De la Salle Cavaliers a very good run.

Only once in 10 years has a team won that was not in the previous year's top three.  That was in 2011 when Holy Cross moved down to Division III after a second place finish in Division II the previous year.  Hence, the Division III mathematical drivel below will only apply to De la Salle, Brusly and North Vermillion, who placed 1st, 2nd and 3rd in 2016.

Given:

The average winning points total in Division I for the last 10 years is 268 points.

Division III Unnecessary Math

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The reigning Division III champion De la Salle Cavaliers will return 10 wrestlers who placed in the top-six, and hopefully a 14th team member to complete a 14-man roster (the Cavaliers only entered 13 wrestlers in 2016.).  They are only losing 41.5 points via graduating seniors Glenn Gebo, Landon Dorsey and Zennon Park. Breaking into the state championship ranks will serve De la Salle well, as they did not win an individual title last year.  Vying for those spots will be runners-up Conrad Wyre, Ryan Hamrick and Jeremiah Jones, as well as Raekwon Thomas and Jeffery Heffner, who each placed third.  The Cavaliers should have enough reserves to fill the four spots they require.

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The Panthers surprised a lot of people with a strong second-place effort with only 10 wrestlers at the 2016 state championships.  They may very well be favored this season.  They are only losing Kyle Cascio and his 18 points to graduation.  They are returning seven top-six placers of which five placed in the top three spots.  Austin Franklin, Richard Hunter and Owen Mabile will be defending state champions.  David Kent and Brandon Young will return as runners-up. The Panthers will thus have seven spots open for new starters and the ones who did not place in the top-six in 2016.  With the with the squad they have returning, they need average only 12.57 points per new starter to score 268 points.  In the wings the Panthers have a few formidable candidates, although their 2015-16 TrackWrestling roster leaves a lot to the imagination.  Leading that group will be sophomore Shane Dearman, listed at 106 lbs. with a record of 16-17.

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Had they scored twenty-five more points the Patriots would have won the Division III state title.  Actually, they probably would have needed less than 25 as those would have come at the cost of some De la Salle and Brusly points.  The really good news for the Patriots, though, if one can get over losing Gavin Backer and Alex Beraud to graduation, is that they have returning wrestlers who scored 129 points in last year's state championships.  Two of those are returning state champions Rhett Maturin and Brennen Landry (who will be seeking his third Division III title).  Six of those placed in the top-six, which means the eight new wrestlers the Patriots need will only have to average 14.71 points to tally 268 points, four of them have already scored state championship points.  However, the Patriots do not have a lot of experience from which to choose, as the rest of their very young roster had only 17 wins in the 2015-16 season.

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