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What we think we know now... |
January 15th, 2020 | Written by: Editor |
NOTE: I am publishing this before I receive the Louisiana Classic seeds later
this evening, just to see if I am "keeping up" with things.
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Before you spend any money wagering on Louisiana Classic results, please bear in mind I have the items above for sale... |
With the Louisiana Classic approaching it is time to check on what we think we know after the first two months of the season. (Please recall that "we" may be used by editors, monarchs and people with tapeworms.)
Q: Is Brother Martin still the team to beat at the Louisiana Classic and at the Division I LHSAA State Wrestling Championships, particularly after their 34-29 dual meet loss to St. Paul?
A: Absolutely. They are the defending champions of both events and until they are not, they remain, by default, the team to beat.
Q: Can somebody defeat Brother Martin at the Louisiana Classic and at the Division I LHSAA State Wrestling Championships?
A: Absolutely.
While dual meets are not always great indicators of the stronger tournament teams, the St. Paul match was very close in many matches and thus indicates the two teams might be close in a tournament format. Evidence of that was seen, and not seen, via the results at the Trey Culotta Invitational. "Brother Martin won it and St. Paul came in fourth, 81 points behind the Crusaders," we hear some of you say. That is true, but another few factors may not be well known to some people.
Brother Martin had a full team at the event. St. Paul only entered 12, and were down to 11 scoring wrestlers, including a non-starter, on Saturday's championship bracket competition. And one of the Wolves hit his self-destruct button on Saturday. With their four starters and the lack of a self-destruct button, the Wolves could have scored another 100 points, ± 10 points. That would have given the Wolves their first Trey Culotta championship. If out-of-state teams were not involved, the Wolves would have scored even more points.
(The Louisiana Classic field will be similar to the Trey Culotta field with the exception that instead of a lot of out-of-state teams a lot of Division II and Division III teams will participate. (The Trey Culotta had three Division II teams and three Division III teams, with the best team score going to Basile (148 points), who had a runner-up in Alex Menier and a champion in Isaac Cortez. The other major impact to the tournament was made by another Division III school. South Beauregard's lone wrestler, Chase Spooner, scored 41 points by winning the 195 lbs. weight class.)
Q: Should any team make significant line-up changes as far as the weights in which a particular wrestler may compete?
A: Possibly, but probably not until the Louisiana Classic and Ken Cole are over.
Brother Martin really does not need to just yet. They may want to see if Connor Hoffman can move down to 132 lbs. (now that Castex has shown he can compete at 126 lbs.) and let Quinn Williams compete at 138 lbs. Hoffman only has two losses at 138 lbs. - one to Byrd's Demetri Teddie and another to Rummel's Jacob Ramirez (Hoffman defeated Ramirez in their first match, though. and at the state championships it will not matter as Rummel is a Division II school). The 132 lbs. weight class is looking for a dominant wrestler still.
St. Paul may make a change if they can. Unless they want to give Davidson another chance at Massicot, if the St. Paul wrestler can make it, he could go down to 152 lbs. where he should have an easier Brother Martin opponent in Riley Horvath. That is if "easier" means a 26-7 record (with only one loss coming from a Louisiana wrestler, Peyton Ward of St. Paul whom Horvath defeated later), a Mandeville Open championship, runner-up spots at the Gulf Coast Clash and the Trey Culotta, a third-place finish at the Black Horse and a fourth-place finish at the Prep Slam. Those type of results making a wrestler "easier" than another can only be pulled-off by the Crusaders. Peyton Ward already showed that he can compete at 145 lbs. as he did so when he won the South Walton Border Wars.
A number of Division II and Division III wrestlers may change their weight classes as they want to see how they would do if they were wrestling against Division I competition at the state championships. Winning the Louisiana Classic removes any perceived stigma idiots may attach to winning Division II or Division III state championships.
Q: Can any other teams be expected to challenge Brother Martin and St. Paul at the Louisiana Classic or the Division I state championship?
A: Yes.
Catholic, Parkway and Holy Cross come to mind, but it will take a lot of things falling in place for such a team to make a serious challenge. Every year some wrestlers do not do as well as they were expected to do at those two tournaments and some wrestlers perform much better than expected. Last year at the state championships two second-seeded wrestlers placed third and three of them placed fourth. Twelve unseeded wrestlers placed in the top-six, including Fontainebleau's Kyle Boell who placed third. On the other side, sixth-seeded Cole Ulfers of St. Paul blew through the 195 lbs. weight class with falls in 0:50, 1:29, 0:23, a 19-3 technical fall and a 9-4 finals victory.
Additionally, there are a lot of "wildcards," or individuals that can win a weight class hailing from teams that will not pose a threat to the team tournament contender, which can help teams like Catholic, Parkway and Holy Cross if the wildcards beat the right people. The first one's that come to mind are Byrd's Demetri Teddie and Jacob Yawn. Live Oak's Clayton Hill, Anthony Dodson and Nawab Singh may also be included in that bunch, as do St. Amant's Corey Brownell and Alex Newman. Baton Rouge has Jarin Meyer (21 wins vs. one loss by two points to East Ascension's Trent Mahoney at 182 lbs.) and Axle Encalada-Arce (20-0). Airline freshman Ernie Perry, III has only one loss to an Oklahoma opponent at a tournament in which he placed third and has a tournament win in Texas and three in Louisiana. East Ascension's Brad Mahoney and Santos Ramos are no one with whom to trifle, nor is Sulphur's Hunter Gustin. Christopher Allen of Covington and Tanner Melendrez of Fontainebleau should be counted in that group.
For the Louisiana Classic, consider the following Division II and Division III wrestlers as capable of making waves: Alex Menier and Isaac Cortez of Basile; Andrew Trahan and Brian Amis of Brusly; Shaw's Glenn Price, Raheem Bonnet and Ashton Surrency; Alex Yokubaitis of St. Louis; Joshua Sarpy and Richard Mack, III of North Desoto; Jacob Ramirez of Rummel; Matthew Carrier and David Bernard of Teurlings Catholic and Chase Spooner of South Beauregard. (Please remember this when I name this year's LWN paperweight award winners.)
Who to watch at the Louisiana Classic this weekend
Twenty-three of the wrestlers mentioned below are undefeated against Louisiana competition. At least 11 will suffer their first defeat this weekend.
Anyone could win (absolute falsehood) but records indicate the following have the best chances:
106 | 113 | 120 | 126 | 132 | 138 | 145 | 152 | 160 | 170 | 182 | 195 | 220 | 285 |
This weight class is a beast. |
Holy Cross' Jacob Frost is 24-1 and his closest match against a Louisiana opponent was a 6-0 decision against Comeaux's Reed Bergeron. But he has other legitimate challengers, albeit two of the best are limited to the Louisiana Classic. His main challengers come from northwest and southwest Louisiana. Senior Joshua Sarpy of Division II North Desoto pushed Frost in the 2019 Louisiana Classic finals, won by Frost 2-0. Then their is Joshua Keeler of Parkway, who has not lost to a Louisiana wrestler this year. Three-time defending Division III state champion Alex Yokubaitis should be in that weight class. Trey Culotta champion Carter Duet of St. Paul, and the kid he beat 5-4 in the finals, Alex Menier of Basile should be there. Let's not forget Shaw's Raheem Bonnet, either, or Comeaux's Reed Bergeron. Among the nine, and not counting losses to out-of-state competition, their combined records are 208-10. |
Two or more of these eight wrestlers may not find
themself placing in the top-six at the 2020 Louisiana Classic.
Records do not reflect losses to non-Louisiana
competitors, byes, forfeits or defaults.
Before it was known that Logan Bertot was out for the rest of the year, a topic among some wrestlers, coaches and the editor was that of all of those big names, three of them at least would not place on Saturday.
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