Brother Martin, under new head coach Andrew Nicola, looks to be the preseason favorite to win their third consecutive Division I team championship.  The Crusaders have three 2019 state champions returning in Logan Bertot, Alex Duncan and Mason Massicot.  They have 2018 state champion Connor Hoffman, and they have returning 2019 runners-up Ethan Castex and Kyle West, and 2019 fourth-place finisher Chase Scott.  Cameron Frederick, who was upset early at the state championships, should also return.  Additionally, they may have Eric Devenport back.  Devenport was 18-2 as a freshman, whose sole Louisiana loss came from Evan Frost of Holy Cross.  In the early stages of the 1018-19 season, before he was lost for the season after an injury in the New Jersey Kingsway Duals in mid-December. Two of those wins were one-point victories over Shaw's Glenn Price.  The Crusaders will, however, need to replace six wrestlers lost to graduation.

St. Paul's has never placed second when competing in Division I (in 2000 and 2001 they won the Division II team titles).  Defending state champion Cole Ulfers will be flanked by runners-up Peyton Ward and Ben Davidson. It should be close between the Wolves and Holy Cross, though, but the edge goes to the Wolves as, while the Tigers have state champions in the "Twinamic Duo" of Not Jacob and Not Ethan Frost returning, their next best finisher was third.  A very loose interpretation of algebraic inequality rules: "One state champion + two runners-up + two sixth placers + one more wrestler with state championship experience > two state champions + two third-placers + one sixth-placer" in my book, if only because mathematically the odds are better for a runner-up to win a championship than a third-place finisher (a claim written with absolutely no research with which to substantiate it).

Catholic should bring the next best team with six placers among the 12 wrestlers returning.  Two other Bear wrestlers were one match away from placing.

After Catholic, the potentialities of returning teams drops significantly.  East Ascension has two-time state champion Trent Mahoney, but his younger brother Brad is the only other top-six placer returning.  In this case one returning state champion rates higher than a third-place finisher, even when third-place finisher is St. Amant's Corey Brownell.  After East Ascension four teams are placed based on the number of experienced wrestlers returning, but a little more credence is given to the higher top-six placers. 

This year marks Live Oak's third stint competing in Division I.  The first was in 1953 when they placed fourth out of 10 teams.  In 2010 they placed 14th out of 33 teams and vastly improved in 2011 to eighth of 32 teams.  Since 2012, participating in Division II, the Eagles have been runners-up twice, placed third four times and placed fourth once.  Clayton Hill, who's worst losses were to Parkway's Trey Fontenot (who has since graduated) in Division II and Alex Yokubaitis of Division III, should have a large say in how the Eagles fare come February.  (I could mention something about Hill and the Jazz Town Duals, but Hill can remain happy with the 2019 Louisiana Classic title.)  He did lose to Connor Hoffman of Brother Martin 7-1 in the Trey Culotta finals but rebounded well to win the Louisiana Classic over soon-to-be state champion Logan Bertot of the Crusaders.  His nemesis, however, may be St. Amant's Brownell.  Hill and Brownell wrestled eight matches against each other during the 2018-19 season, going 4-4 against each other.  With luck, the fans may be treated to more of the same this season.  Junior Anthony Dodson should also fare well.  After the new year started Dodson only lost to senior Dyllon Bernard of Comeaux.  Bernard defeated him in the Louisiana Classic and the Ken Cole, but Dodson came back to place third in both of those events.

Live Oak gets the nod over Parkway due to the returning state champions Dodson and Hill, and because they have more wrestlers with state tournament experience returning.

Comeaux and Hahnville have some rebuilding to do and should battle to place 10th. 

The oddest thing about these predictions is why I had to pick 13 teams instead of 10.  It is only because on paper Jesuit appears to not be better than 12th.  Since 1945, when the program started, the Blue Jays have never placed lower than sixth.  This season, though, only five Blue Jays are returning who competed in the 2019 state championships, and none of them placed in the top-six.  Hence, this is a huge rebuilding season for the Blue Jays, but Coach Sheridan Moran and his staff will be up to that task.  Plus, one should never forget the 25-or-so the points the Blue Jays always seem to get by just weighing-in.  Actually it is because some relatively unknown Jesuit wrestler is bound to do better than anyone expected.  To quote Alan Turing in The Imitation Game: "Sometimes it is the people no one imagines anything of who do the things that no one can imagine."

Jesuit is the leader in intangibles, however, and that may vault the Blue Jays into the top-10.

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1)    Brother Martin

2)    St. Paul's

3)    Holy Cross

4)    Catholic

5)    East Ascension

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6)    St. Amant

8)    Parkway:

10)    Fontainebleau

11)    Sulphur   

12)    Comeaux  

13)    Jesuit

No returning placers    Andrew Rosevally - junior    Luke Battaglia - junior    Charlie Cyrus - senior     - senior  - one match      - sophomore - one match.

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